Tuesday, 3 December 2013

At last! November review

Well Sporting Value is now in a position to announce a profit. Not just a monthly profit, and a good one at that, but the whole portfolio for this season has snuck into the black. Admittedly this is not taking into account the subscription costs but at this moment I will take it.

Rank Tipster Staked P/L ROI ROC
1 The Football Analyst 161 32.1 20% 32%
2 Skeeve 6 9 150% 11%
3 Football Investor 97.5 10.2 10% 10%
4 Summer of Football 14 1.9 14% 5%
5 Football Elite 33 1.7 5% 3%
6 Narrow Victories 26 -0.6 -2% -1%
7 Laurent Marty 23.5 -4.7 -20% -9%

The November table shows a big change, the two services that dragged the service down over the first three months are at the forefront of the profit this month. In fact Skeeve would have been even higher on the list if I had not chosen to skip a series of doubles as all the opponents had already been backed with TFA and FI.

Well I did jinx it and 6 odds points down the drain, although I was also uneasy about the differing tactics with playing a series of doubles with four teams in. I suppose it does point out one issue I have been having in placing so much money down on TFA and FI bets on the Thursday and sometimes looking for an excuse not to put more down. This has also rubbed off on Narrow Victories selections but I will save this discussion for another post.

This month has had a few other omissions, some more profitable, some not. With Football Elite I chose not to bet on Fulham to beat Manchester United (DNB) as I was backing United to win by 1/2 with Narrow Victories. I also had a bit of luck with Summer of Football as an email containing two losers was swallowed into my junk folder. One of these teams was also being opposed by FI so it really was a stroke of luck. In fact the Skeeve doubles I ignored also did not get through the filter first time so maybe all these events were linked!

Last month I wrote about how I was limiting my TFA selections to a maximum of 4 points. During the losing October period this saved me over £1300, this month (a winning one) has cost me around £400.

So November produced just over £4,000 in profit on turnover of around £32,000, both totals being the highest so far. This means that the whole portfolio is now £667.50 in the black on turnover of just over £88,000. This is less than 1% ROI, but given the start to the season I will take that. The overall standing now looks like this:

Rank Tipster Staked P/L ROI ROC
1 Summer of Football 70 15 21% 38%
2 Narrow Victories 95 7.35 8% 18%
3 Football Investor 208.5 8 4% 8%
4 Laurent Marty 37.5 3.15 8% 6%
5 Football Elite 61 0.1 0% 0%
6 Skeeve 72 -17.1 -24% -21%
7 The Football Analyst 436 -24.9 -6% -25%

Five of the seven services are now in profit and the two big offenders have cut their losses considerably. December has got off to a relatively good start with three (TFA, FI and FE) all backing Hull to beat Liverpool so hopefully the wind is in our sails now.

Sporting Value Confidence Rating (last months rating in brackets)

The Football Analyst – 3.5 (3.5)
An excellent month from Graeme's service even though his bread and butter product of aways were the least effective. Graeme and I have discussed the draw part of the portfolio and both of us were a little worried early on but they, along with double staking the home bets have formed a fine defence to the away variance.

Bets Stakes Returns Profit
Away 64 £6720 £7220 £500
Draw 11 £1520 £2491 £971
Home 26 £4640 £5740 £1100

Last month the service was looking precarious with over half the bank gone (75% if not for limiting the bet sizes) but we are now back to around a quarter down. 

Last rating time I mentioned that November was typically a good month for my particular TFA portfolio and it proved to be so, and I am pleased to say that December is also promising, if not as much as November but promising none-the-less. Of the seven on record, all have been profitable with 4 of the 7 producing enough profit to take the whole portfolio back into profit. The average profit is 41.8 points, although the last three years show just 15.7, but I would take that now.

Skeeve – 3 (2.5)
Much better with all selections (that I backed at least) winning. Skeeve's conservative approach seems to be paying dividends and again draws have played a big part in reducing the overall losses with this service. We are now one month away from the post January period which is historically the best time of year, so if we can just reduce the deficit a little before then, hopefully it will be all guns blazing.

Football Investor – 3.5 (3.5)
Good profit, good turnover, all ticking along nicely. Last month's bonanza with big priced Top Flight Euro bets dried up but I added Football Investor selections over 4.00 (if not in Combo/SZ) and these made up for it.

Combo30 £2,800.00 £2,949.60 £149.60
Euro6 £240.00-£240.00
FI13 £520.00 £916.00 £396.00
SZ52 £4,240.00 £4,751.20 £511.20

Service is now in profit overall so long may it continue.

Summer of Football – 3.5 (3.5)
As mentioned previously, 2 points were saved in error, which turned a minuscule loss into a profit but them the breaks! The A League has got off to a reasonable start, which should take the place of the fading Brazilian offerings, of which Serie B was the best performer this month.

Bets Stakes Returns Profit
A League 4  £600.00  £712.50  £112.50
Ligue 2 5  £750.00  £675.00 -£75.00
Serie A 3  £450.00  £427.50 -£22.50
Serie B 2  £300.00  £570.00  £270.00

Football Elite – 3 (3)
Bar a disastrous weekend the one before last, this would have been a stellar month but in the end just under two points up. The Premier League has been the most profitable, mainly due to Newcastle's win over Chelsea (a great result for the portfolio overall with TFA and FI playing as well).

Bets Stakes Returns Profit
Bundesliga 2  £240.00 -£240.00
La Liga 5  £600.00  £372.00 -£228.00
Ligue 1 8  £960.00  £932.40 -£27.60
Prem League 9  £1,080.00  £1,662.00  £582.00
Serie A 9  £1,080.00  £1,200.00  £120.00

Bundesliga and LA Liga let the side down a little but nothing drastic, in fact December started with a Hannover win at home so hopefully that is a good sign!

Narrow Victories – 3 (3)
Another break-even month, although as an Arsenal fan, Ramsey's goal in added time against Cardiff was still celebrated even though that would have put me in the black for November. I must admit when Wenger brought on Flamini and Monreal to seal the 1-0 win with 10 mins to go, I thought it was safe but c'est la vie, as Mathieu would say. I started playing the Champions League this month, to mixed results although an overall profit.

Bets Stakes Returns Profit
Bundesliga 4 400 491 91
Champ 5 500 610 110
La Liga 3 300 413 113
Ligue 1 1 100 206 106
Portugal 1 100 0 -100
Premier 6 600 213 -387
Russia 1 100 0 -100
Serie A 4 400 408 8
Turkey 1 100 204 104

No one League has produced the goods but the Premier League did let me down this month. Certainly Saturday's results of Everton winning 4-0 and Arsenal 3-0 away buck most trends (similar to Genk's 3-0 win in Belgium), but more on that on the sister site later.

Laurent Marty – 3 (3)
Not a great month and beginning to see the prices disappear quicker, so might not be the only one noticing an uptick in his numbers. Officially should be just a 2 point loss but Saturday's match at Brive was tipped at under 35.5 and the price went in a flash and I ended up on under 34.5. I am sure you can guess the final points tally. Frustrating.

Other services
I have mentioned that I was trialling two other services, namely Football Form Labs Daily Reports and Keith Elliot's Golf service. I have decided to drop the golf after my initial months subscription, mainly as I wanted to play this as a place only system which my calculations showed were the profitable part. Unfortunately the bookies don't let you get close enough to the EW price equivalent (in the month I was backing I was averaging 85-90% of that price) and taking this into account the edge is much less. I will go into more detail in another post and share the analysis I performed.

FFL is still alive although I am not enjoying following a service that does not announce when it's tips go up. In fact I have often forgotten to check which does not do it justice. Also I am not convinced if there is an edge beyond certain angles and even those do not have the sample size to be sure. As I constantly use the data side of the service I will not be cancelling but I need a bit more convincing to add it to the portfolio on a full time basis.

I have also considered Skeeve offshoot, Croatian Football Bets, but unlike its creator's service, bets pop up out of the blue and the prices contract very fast. If I am at desk/computer at time I have tried to play but if driving etc, by the time I get to it the price is usually well gone. If Skeeve can get some of that professionalism into the service and maintain set times for bets (or 15/30 mins warning like Betadvisor do), I think this could work alongside the Skeeve product, especially as his turnover is down at present.

Bookie Update
Account closures:
None this month
Serious Restrictions:
Betway (down to pennies)
Tote - been a bigger player with all the away bets on TFA and FI but now restricted to about £150 win. Can still put a little on with Betfred so together am getting close to what I want, but can't see it last much longer.
Paddy Power - Limited to around about a £100 win
BetInternet - Tried to place about £150 at 1.16 as part of my Venn style Asian handicaps with NV but limited to I think £46! At 1.16 I ask you!
Unibet - Have been using there draw part of their European Handicaps to play NV via dutching the 1 and 2 goal starts. £50 bets are being restricted to around £33.
These two explain why, regardless of how successful it becomes, Narrow Victories could never be a tipping service!

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