I mentioned in last month’s post that I had so much to say I was to break it down into 4 parts. With the intro taken care of, Part 2 deals with the services I am most happy with and have the closest fit to my requirements.
Before I go into details I thought it best to share with you
my checklist for choosing a service. Of course not every one can tick all these
boxes, but I have to make some serious arguments to overlook them.
1.
Clear selections with relatively stable delivery
times
2.
Bets and prices are achievable at my limited
list of bookies
3.
Reasoning is clear even if result of
algorithms/rules
4.
Service is stable in terms of psychology and
staking (not on tilt)
5.
Records are clear, verified and analysable
6.
Profitable in the long and medium term
7.
Minimal clashes with others in stable
8.
Price is justifiable
Having typed these out, I can think of many other factors
but I believe they all can sort of fit into one of these categories.
The first service that is back in the fold is the most
profitable one of last year, namely Football Investor. I am very confident that
it meets all of the 8 points and I find it provides a fine template to compare
other services against. Of all the services on my shortlist it is one of the
first I subscribed to (although did drop it for a while, but will explain that
later) and I like to think of it as the rock at the centre of my portfolio.
Before I talk about how I will utilise Stewboss’s selections
next year let me show you what it did for me last year. I allocated a £8000
bank to FI and it returned a glorious £6000 profit. Admittedly it had two
relatively large downturns and it was set up for a 100%+ ROC but I am more than
happy with how this turned out.
I started the season with a
portfolio consisting of Combo (homes as 2pt, aways as 1pt), Stike Zone (1pt win
Homes 2.15 – 2.75, 1pt Homes and Aways DNB >2.75) and 0.5 points on Top
Flight Euro selections priced 4 and over.
As the season progressed, I
did make some adjustments, namely dropping some SZ selections as they were too heavily
correlated with Combo bets and picking up a few big priced Football Investor
picks, when not included elsewhere. It does make the results questionable to a
degree as I haven’t followed the rules to the letter but I find when utilising
system selections you must be open to adjustments, more of that when we look at
the next service!
So how did each subset work
out:
|
System
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Combo
|
274
|
28938
|
4299
|
15%
|
|
FI
|
18
|
860
|
652
|
76%
|
|
SZ
|
342
|
27046
|
180
|
1%
|
|
TFE
|
73
|
2840
|
898
|
32%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
707
|
59684
|
6029
|
10%
|
As you can see, the Combo system was the rock, and TFE and
FI provided the cherries on the top. We can see why limiting SZ was probably
the right call and I think it will struggle to make the team next season.
|
League
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
ROC
|
|
Championship
|
112
|
12975
|
3362
|
26%
|
|
|
Conference
|
41
|
3270
|
-526
|
-16%
|
|
|
La Liga
|
56
|
2920
|
110.8
|
4%
|
|
|
League
1
|
87
|
7800
|
1906
|
24%
|
|
|
League
2
|
256
|
20435
|
496
|
2%
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
28
|
1800
|
-174
|
-10%
|
|
|
Premiership
|
52
|
5311.42
|
2855
|
54%
|
|
|
Scots
Prem
|
35
|
2693.35
|
-1221
|
-45%
|
|
|
Serie A
|
40
|
2480
|
-779
|
-31%
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
707
|
59684
|
6029
|
10%
|
75%
|
By League, we can see that top 3 divisions of England
cleaned up, and any gains from the Top Flight European selections were undone
by Strike Zone’s Euro picks. As the best of British SZ usually appeared in
Combo and Euro ones underperformed you can see the issues I had!
|
1X2
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Away
|
500
|
36893
|
2477
|
7%
|
|
Home
|
207
|
22791
|
3552
|
16%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
707
|
59684
|
6029
|
10%
|
As this last table shows, homes were the big winner for me,
especially the double play combos. This is not surprising with the underlying
stats that have been produced by both Stewboss and Graeme at TFA, so still wavering
whether to play the full 2 point stakes next season.
So that was the brilliance of last season, what do I plan to
do in 2014/15? Well having spent quite a lot of the summer playing with Excel –
my wife did a personality test on me last week and was not surprised in the
least to see I was an INTP who loved nothing more than tinkering with
spreadsheets, regardless of result – I have come up with a provisional plan.
Obviously the Combo system is straight in, just got to
decide if it is 1, 1.5 or 2 points on home selections. I am also going to play
the Top Flight Euro system to a greater degree.
Before I set this portfolio in stone I am going to wait for
Stewboss to release his Top Flight Euro review and hopefully have him run my
plans through his portfolio simulator as his did so successfully last season.
As I have said to anyone who asks, Football Investor is an
incredible package at an absolute bargain of a price and I am really looking
forward to next season.
I mentioned that I dropped FI a couple of years ago, and I
put that down to an element of temporary disappointment in profit levels but
also the fact I was in the learning stage as a gambler and had a preference for
the services that explained their steps and reasoning. I would now say that is
much less of a criterion for me, especially if I believe the tipster has a
credible method, or set of algorithms as Stewboss does. Would I like to know
how he does it, yes, in a geeky way, but do I need to have it explained to me,
no, not anymore.
Next in is the Football Analyst, which last season provided
me with a profit of nearly £3700 and a ROC of 46%. Not bad, although the
portfolio was set up for 100%+ ROC and looking at the graph, one can see it was
quite a rollercoaster of a journey.
As the graph clearly demonstates, the maximum drawdown was
bigger than peak profit, which rather satisfactorily was at the end of the
season.
Before I look at the upcoming season I want to dissect what
went well and what didn’t work.
|
League
|
Bets
|
Stake
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Bsq
Prem
|
107
|
15310
|
-1030.1
|
-7%
|
|
Championship
|
132
|
19549
|
1248.2
|
6%
|
|
League
1
|
130
|
17577.5
|
-582.3
|
-3%
|
|
League
2
|
271
|
35477
|
4917.8
|
14%
|
|
Premiership
|
73
|
9939
|
1393.5
|
14%
|
|
SPL
|
40
|
5378
|
-2255.6
|
-42%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
753
|
103230.5
|
3691.5
|
4%
|
By League first, it is quite clear who the biggest offender
was and I am finding little enthusiasm for following the Scottish bets next
year, even with Graeme’s undoubted involvement with Dundee back in the SPL. In
fact, between them FI and TFA dropped nearly 3.5k on Scottish selections! By
far the best division was League 2, which produced a bigger profit than the
whole lot put together. Before I get ahead of myself and just concentrate on L2
and ditch SPL, I am aware that L2 aways were on a poor run, so will not jump to
too early a conclusion.
|
1X2
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Away
|
435
|
49522
|
3019.7
|
6%
|
|
Draw
|
121
|
16201
|
2759.8
|
17%
|
|
Home
|
197
|
37507.5
|
-2088
|
-6%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
753
|
103230.5
|
3691.5
|
4%
|
Analysing the results by bet type, aways and draws come out
best, and while home bets look poor, I felt they helped out during the
downturns. Mind you the real credit for smoothing out the journey were the draw
bets. At the start of the season, Graeme and I designed a portfolio that
included all the best performing win systems and a couple of draw systems (see
post at start of the season for exact breakdown).
Those two draw systems, D3–D6 and D3-D7, got off to a very
good start but they were the most filtered of all the Draw systems so I soon
added D2-D6 and D2-D7 to the portfolio, but still limited myself to a maximum
stake of 2 points.
I have already mentioned that I was following a lot of win
systems, 11 in fact, with home bets backed at 1 point per qualifying system bet
and ½ a point on aways. At £80 a point, this left a maximum of £880 on homes
and £440 on aways, which I soon find was too much discomfort for me personally.
£880 was over 10% of my bank on 1 bet and was way too much. Given that the
season started with quite a heavy drawdown, it did not take long for me to
adjust down to a maximum stake of £320 on homes and £160 on aways (max 4 system
qualifiers) and by the end of the season I was down to a maximum of £160 on any
bet.
A lot of thanks for
the adjustment down was an paper that Graeme shared for long-time subscriber
Tage Poulsen. Although I did not follow his portfolio it did highlight how
unbalanced my one was. Just to illustrate the effect:
|
Stake
size
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profits
|
ROI
|
|
>160
|
85
|
26520
|
-4661.6
|
-18%
|
|
160 or
less
|
668
|
76710.5
|
8353.1
|
11%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
753
|
103230.5
|
3691.5
|
4%
|
Obviously this is not just bets that are have 4 system
qualifiers or less – a la Tage – but include those that have been adjusted down
at various rates over the season.
To make a fairer comparison I have standardised all the bets
to a level £100 stake, and I do wish I had followed this from the start, and
intend to do so this season as much as possible.
|
League
|
Bets
|
Normal
stakes
|
Normal
Profit
|
Profit
@ £100/bet
|
ROI @
£100
|
|
Bsq
Prem
|
107
|
15310
|
-1030.1
|
341
|
3%
|
|
Championship
|
132
|
19549
|
1248.2
|
2371
|
18%
|
|
League
1
|
130
|
17577.5
|
-582.3
|
-768
|
-6%
|
|
League
2
|
271
|
35477
|
4917.8
|
2866
|
11%
|
|
Premiership
|
73
|
9939
|
1393.5
|
899
|
12%
|
|
SPL
|
40
|
5378
|
-2255.6
|
-827
|
-21%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
753
|
103230.5
|
3691.5
|
4882
|
6%
|
A look at its corresponding profit graph also shows a much
smoother journey:
As to where we go next, Graeme has emailed today opening the
portfolio analysis doors for the first tranche of subscribers, and I am proud
to say I qualify as I signed on the dotted line on the first available slot. I
will run my ideas past him and then get back with my likely portfolio. I do
want to include a bit more Euro action, both the regular systems and the new
draw ones, and I have a few little angles I want him to look at for me.
During March, in the midst of the big downturn I was getting
most worried that Graeme was about to throw in the towel, so I am very pleased
it is all going ahead, and now that I know I will not be overstaking to
maximise ROC, the service definitely fits all of my rules listed above.
I feel a little bit like I am jumping the gun on this as I
have been waiting for a Secret Betting Club review to make sure that my
feelings are not just mine. PCG specialises in American Sports and it is thanks
to Rowan Day’s Practical Punter articles in SBC that I came across it.
I have been a member since late April and have enjoyed the
mostly baseball fuelled adventure so far. Up to last week when I updated the
overall statistics, the graph looked like this:
This was the first time I have visualised my experience with
PCG and I was a little surprised at the swings that had taken place, but I hope
this will flatten out in the long run.
I have been pitched into the middle of the baseball season
and most of the profits and bets have come in this area. I must admit to being
a bit phobic about the sport, having walked out of Fenway Park many years ago,
with a feeling that the Boston Red Sox game was going on way too long and was
so over commericalised. But add the angle of wagering and a greater interest in
Statistics, I even find myself watching a game or two on BT Sport or EPSN. God
knows how Americans cope without being able to bet on the games, officially at
least. Mind you, I imagine their Ray Winstone equivalent ad would really get on
your wick at every commercial break!
Anyway, I digress. Other sports that have seen action have
been basketball, American (or Canadian) Football and Ice Hockey, but all either
end of season or start, so can not say much about it.
|
Sport
|
Bets
|
Stakes
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
American
Football
|
2
|
200
|
193.67
|
97%
|
|
Baseball
|
146
|
15119
|
973.93
|
6%
|
|
Basketball
|
12
|
1052
|
-23.04
|
-2%
|
|
Hockey
|
13
|
1345
|
-102.39
|
-8%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
173
|
17716
|
1042.17
|
6%
|
If I try to relate the service to my rules, 1 is fine,
usually around 5pm, although this can be a bit of a pain on weekends as often
out with the family and games can start quite quickly afterwards.
2 is mostly fine as the majority of bets are with Pinnacle,
Dafabet or Matchbook, and I can usually get or beat the price if relatively
quick. My only bugbear on prices is the Under/Over bets where no price is
quoted, so I am not sure if I have achieved value. I usually check Oddsportal
for the corresponding price at time of delivery, but still have lingering
doubts about this.
3 and 4 are great with steady staking and notes to explain
or back up selections, although I get the feeling this has an algorithm/system
backbone so not always necessary.
The results are analysable and available for quite a few
years, although I will hold full approval until properly verified by SBC or
other organisation. In fact fiddling with the data has led me to believe that
using the Raw Data could be an even better proposition for me.
Looking at this baseball season as a whole, the Raw data – I
believe these are the selections spat out by the computer, as opposed to the
bets advised, which have been further filtered – shows a greater profit, and a
smoother curve.
Point 7 is the real winner for me as it is unlikely to have
any major clashes with the rest of my portfolio. American sports provide real
liquidity and, baseball especially, great turnover as there are so many
top-tier matches. I did think I could get away with placing the bets and
letting it all go on in the background, but I fear it is already drawing me in.
Finally it is incredible value at around $30 a month, so a
winner pretty much all round. As I have hinted at, there are a couple of areas
that could be better, but so far I am a very happy customer.
What Next
I mentioned in my last post that the definites would be
three in number for the purpose of this post. I have resubscribed to probably my
oldest service, but originally it was in the possibles and will remain part of
that post. I am still not sure how I will play it so that is why it belongs
there.
The next post is going to be dominated by two services,
ClubGowi and TennisRatings. As I said before I have spent a lot of time going
over the numbers and to be quite honest I am still not sure what to do going
forward. I did chuckle at Rowan’s comment in the most recent Practical Punter
to take new ventures slowly and with small stakes as my tennis bets in June
were a bit of a disaster!
Steve over at Daily 25 expressed some fears over Gowi in his
recent post and planned to share his numbers once he gets a year’s worth of
data. I now have 6 months and am not sure if I will make it to a year so plan
to share my findings based on this period next time.
TennisRatings is a fantastic service which has mainly been
for traders so far, but I want my gambling to be as much a passive income as
possible so do not have the time or inclination to trade. But the level of
analysis and reams of data that Dan produces must provide some angles for the
pre-match bettor. In fact Dan has recently released a pre-match product,
although his tipping service is stopping. So next time I will go into more detail
about how (or still possibly if) I intend to play it.
