Part 2 : The definites

I mentioned in last month’s post that I had so much to say I was to break it down into 4 parts. With the intro taken care of, Part 2 deals with the services I am most happy with and have the closest fit to my requirements.

Before I go into details I thought it best to share with you my checklist for choosing a service. Of course not every one can tick all these boxes, but I have to make some serious arguments to overlook them.

1.              Clear selections with relatively stable delivery times

2.              Bets and prices are achievable at my limited list of bookies

3.              Reasoning is clear even if result of algorithms/rules

4.              Service is stable in terms of psychology and staking (not on tilt)

5.              Records are clear, verified and analysable

6.              Profitable in the long and medium term

7.              Minimal clashes with others in stable

8.              Price is justifiable

Having typed these out, I can think of many other factors but I believe they all can sort of fit into one of these categories.

Football Investor

The first service that is back in the fold is the most profitable one of last year, namely Football Investor. I am very confident that it meets all of the 8 points and I find it provides a fine template to compare other services against. Of all the services on my shortlist it is one of the first I subscribed to (although did drop it for a while, but will explain that later) and I like to think of it as the rock at the centre of my portfolio.

Before I talk about how I will utilise Stewboss’s selections next year let me show you what it did for me last year. I allocated a £8000 bank to FI and it returned a glorious £6000 profit. Admittedly it had two relatively large downturns and it was set up for a 100%+ ROC but I am more than happy with how this turned out.

I started the season with a portfolio consisting of Combo (homes as 2pt, aways as 1pt), Stike Zone (1pt win Homes 2.15 – 2.75, 1pt Homes and Aways DNB >2.75) and 0.5 points on Top Flight Euro selections priced 4 and over.

As the season progressed, I did make some adjustments, namely dropping some SZ selections as they were too heavily correlated with Combo bets and picking up a few big priced Football Investor picks, when not included elsewhere. It does make the results questionable to a degree as I haven’t followed the rules to the letter but I find when utilising system selections you must be open to adjustments, more of that when we look at the next service!

So how did each subset work out:

System	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
Combo	274	28938	4299	15%
FI	18	860	652	76%
SZ	342	27046	180	1%
TFE	73	2840	898	32%
Grand Total	707	59684	6029	10%

As you can see, the Combo system was the rock, and TFE and FI provided the cherries on the top. We can see why limiting SZ was probably the right call and I think it will struggle to make the team next season.

League	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI	ROC
Championship	112	12975	3362	26%
Conference	41	3270	-526	-16%
La Liga	56	2920	110.8	4%
League 1	87	7800	1906	24%
League 2	256	20435	496	2%
Ligue 1	28	1800	-174	-10%
Premiership	52	5311.42	2855	54%
Scots Prem	35	2693.35	-1221	-45%
Serie A	40	2480	-779	-31%
Grand Total	707	59684	6029	10%	75%

By League, we can see that top 3 divisions of England cleaned up, and any gains from the Top Flight European selections were undone by Strike Zone’s Euro picks. As the best of British SZ usually appeared in Combo and Euro ones underperformed you can see the issues I had!

1X2	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
Away	500	36893	2477	7%
Home	207	22791	3552	16%
Grand Total	707	59684	6029	10%

As this last table shows, homes were the big winner for me, especially the double play combos. This is not surprising with the underlying stats that have been produced by both Stewboss and Graeme at TFA, so still wavering whether to play the full 2 point stakes next season.

So that was the brilliance of last season, what do I plan to do in 2014/15? Well having spent quite a lot of the summer playing with Excel – my wife did a personality test on me last week and was not surprised in the least to see I was an INTP who loved nothing more than tinkering with spreadsheets, regardless of result – I have come up with a provisional plan.

Obviously the Combo system is straight in, just got to decide if it is 1, 1.5 or 2 points on home selections. I am also going to play the Top Flight Euro system to a greater degree.

Before I set this portfolio in stone I am going to wait for Stewboss to release his Top Flight Euro review and hopefully have him run my plans through his portfolio simulator as his did so successfully last season.

As I have said to anyone who asks, Football Investor is an incredible package at an absolute bargain of a price and I am really looking forward to next season.

I mentioned that I dropped FI a couple of years ago, and I put that down to an element of temporary disappointment in profit levels but also the fact I was in the learning stage as a gambler and had a preference for the services that explained their steps and reasoning. I would now say that is much less of a criterion for me, especially if I believe the tipster has a credible method, or set of algorithms as Stewboss does. Would I like to know how he does it, yes, in a geeky way, but do I need to have it explained to me, no, not anymore.

The Football Analyst

Next in is the Football Analyst, which last season provided me with a profit of nearly £3700 and a ROC of 46%. Not bad, although the portfolio was set up for 100%+ ROC and looking at the graph, one can see it was quite a rollercoaster of a journey.

As the graph clearly demonstates, the maximum drawdown was bigger than peak profit, which rather satisfactorily was at the end of the season.

Before I look at the upcoming season I want to dissect what went well and what didn’t work.

League	Bets	Stake	Profit	ROI
Bsq Prem	107	15310	-1030.1	-7%
Championship	132	19549	1248.2	6%
League 1	130	17577.5	-582.3	-3%
League 2	271	35477	4917.8	14%
Premiership	73	9939	1393.5	14%
SPL	40	5378	-2255.6	-42%
Grand Total	753	103230.5	3691.5	4%

By League first, it is quite clear who the biggest offender was and I am finding little enthusiasm for following the Scottish bets next year, even with Graeme’s undoubted involvement with Dundee back in the SPL. In fact, between them FI and TFA dropped nearly 3.5k on Scottish selections! By far the best division was League 2, which produced a bigger profit than the whole lot put together. Before I get ahead of myself and just concentrate on L2 and ditch SPL, I am aware that L2 aways were on a poor run, so will not jump to too early a conclusion.

1X2	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
Away	435	49522	3019.7	6%
Draw	121	16201	2759.8	17%
Home	197	37507.5	-2088	-6%
Grand Total	753	103230.5	3691.5	4%

Analysing the results by bet type, aways and draws come out best, and while home bets look poor, I felt they helped out during the downturns. Mind you the real credit for smoothing out the journey were the draw bets. At the start of the season, Graeme and I designed a portfolio that included all the best performing win systems and a couple of draw systems (see post at start of the season for exact breakdown).

Those two draw systems, D3–D6 and D3-D7, got off to a very good start but they were the most filtered of all the Draw systems so I soon added D2-D6 and D2-D7 to the portfolio, but still limited myself to a maximum stake of 2 points.

I have already mentioned that I was following a lot of win systems, 11 in fact, with home bets backed at 1 point per qualifying system bet and ½ a point on aways. At £80 a point, this left a maximum of £880 on homes and £440 on aways, which I soon find was too much discomfort for me personally. £880 was over 10% of my bank on 1 bet and was way too much. Given that the season started with quite a heavy drawdown, it did not take long for me to adjust down to a maximum stake of £320 on homes and £160 on aways (max 4 system qualifiers) and by the end of the season I was down to a maximum of £160 on any bet.

 A lot of thanks for the adjustment down was an paper that Graeme shared for long-time subscriber Tage Poulsen. Although I did not follow his portfolio it did highlight how unbalanced my one was. Just to illustrate the effect:

Stake size	Bets	Stakes	Profits	ROI
>160	85	26520	-4661.6	-18%
160 or less	668	76710.5	8353.1	11%
Grand Total	753	103230.5	3691.5	4%

Obviously this is not just bets that are have 4 system qualifiers or less – a la Tage – but include those that have been adjusted down at various rates over the season.

To make a fairer comparison I have standardised all the bets to a level £100 stake, and I do wish I had followed this from the start, and intend to do so this season as much as possible.

League	Bets	Normal stakes	Normal Profit	Profit @ £100/bet	ROI @ £100
Bsq Prem	107	15310	-1030.1	341	3%
Championship	132	19549	1248.2	2371	18%
League 1	130	17577.5	-582.3	-768	-6%
League 2	271	35477	4917.8	2866	11%
Premiership	73	9939	1393.5	899	12%
SPL	40	5378	-2255.6	-827	-21%
Grand Total	753	103230.5	3691.5	4882	6%

A look at its corresponding profit graph also shows a much smoother journey:

As to where we go next, Graeme has emailed today opening the portfolio analysis doors for the first tranche of subscribers, and I am proud to say I qualify as I signed on the dotted line on the first available slot. I will run my ideas past him and then get back with my likely portfolio. I do want to include a bit more Euro action, both the regular systems and the new draw ones, and I have a few little angles I want him to look at for me.

During March, in the midst of the big downturn I was getting most worried that Graeme was about to throw in the towel, so I am very pleased it is all going ahead, and now that I know I will not be overstaking to maximise ROC, the service definitely fits all of my rules listed above.

Pro Computer Gambler

I feel a little bit like I am jumping the gun on this as I have been waiting for a Secret Betting Club review to make sure that my feelings are not just mine. PCG specialises in American Sports and it is thanks to Rowan Day’s Practical Punter articles in SBC that I came across it.

I have been a member since late April and have enjoyed the mostly baseball fuelled adventure so far. Up to last week when I updated the overall statistics, the graph looked like this:

This was the first time I have visualised my experience with PCG and I was a little surprised at the swings that had taken place, but I hope this will flatten out in the long run.

I have been pitched into the middle of the baseball season and most of the profits and bets have come in this area. I must admit to being a bit phobic about the sport, having walked out of Fenway Park many years ago, with a feeling that the Boston Red Sox game was going on way too long and was so over commericalised. But add the angle of wagering and a greater interest in Statistics, I even find myself watching a game or two on BT Sport or EPSN. God knows how Americans cope without being able to bet on the games, officially at least. Mind you, I imagine their Ray Winstone equivalent ad would really get on your wick at every commercial break!

Anyway, I digress. Other sports that have seen action have been basketball, American (or Canadian) Football and Ice Hockey, but all either end of season or start, so can not say much about it.

Sport	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
American Football	2	200	193.67	97%
Baseball	146	15119	973.93	6%
Basketball	12	1052	-23.04	-2%
Hockey	13	1345	-102.39	-8%
Grand Total	173	17716	1042.17	6%

If I try to relate the service to my rules, 1 is fine, usually around 5pm, although this can be a bit of a pain on weekends as often out with the family and games can start quite quickly afterwards.

2 is mostly fine as the majority of bets are with Pinnacle, Dafabet or Matchbook, and I can usually get or beat the price if relatively quick. My only bugbear on prices is the Under/Over bets where no price is quoted, so I am not sure if I have achieved value. I usually check Oddsportal for the corresponding price at time of delivery, but still have lingering doubts about this.

3 and 4 are great with steady staking and notes to explain or back up selections, although I get the feeling this has an algorithm/system backbone so not always necessary.

The results are analysable and available for quite a few years, although I will hold full approval until properly verified by SBC or other organisation. In fact fiddling with the data has led me to believe that using the Raw Data could be an even better proposition for me.

Looking at this baseball season as a whole, the Raw data – I believe these are the selections spat out by the computer, as opposed to the bets advised, which have been further filtered – shows a greater profit, and a smoother curve.

Point 7 is the real winner for me as it is unlikely to have any major clashes with the rest of my portfolio. American sports provide real liquidity and, baseball especially, great turnover as there are so many top-tier matches. I did think I could get away with placing the bets and letting it all go on in the background, but I fear it is already drawing me in.

Finally it is incredible value at around $30 a month, so a winner pretty much all round. As I have hinted at, there are a couple of areas that could be better, but so far I am a very happy customer.

What Next

I mentioned in my last post that the definites would be three in number for the purpose of this post. I have resubscribed to probably my oldest service, but originally it was in the possibles and will remain part of that post. I am still not sure how I will play it so that is why it belongs there.

The next post is going to be dominated by two services, ClubGowi and TennisRatings. As I said before I have spent a lot of time going over the numbers and to be quite honest I am still not sure what to do going forward. I did chuckle at Rowan’s comment in the most recent Practical Punter to take new ventures slowly and with small stakes as my tennis bets in June were a bit of a disaster!

Steve over at Daily 25 expressed some fears over Gowi in his recent post and planned to share his numbers once he gets a year’s worth of data. I now have 6 months and am not sure if I will make it to a year so plan to share my findings based on this period next time.

TennisRatings is a fantastic service which has mainly been for traders so far, but I want my gambling to be as much a passive income as possible so do not have the time or inclination to trade. But the level of analysis and reams of data that Dan produces must provide some angles for the pre-match bettor. In fact Dan has recently released a pre-match product, although his tipping service is stopping. So next time I will go into more detail about how (or still possibly if) I intend to play it.