That didn't go to plan

I mentioned on Friday that there was a lot down, unfortunately most of it has ended up in the bookies satchel (or eWallet). Futbol-24 updates on my phone were not making an afternoon children's birthday party go any quicker, although, for a short while, Middlesborough did look like they were about to put the TFA bets into profit.

Anyway I don't want to dwell on the negatives as there were some positives among the carnage. 
Noteably I felt I coped psychologically with some of the biggest individual bets I have ever placed - yes, they did lose, so properly tested.

Rather than put a P&L on the weekend, I want to share where the portfolio is standing, taking the start of August as a logical starting point. As I mentioned 3 or 4 posts ago it consists of two systems, TFA and FI, and three more analytical systems, namely Skeeve, SoF and FE. I also run my own selections, favouring one or two goal victories for strong favourites.

So far this season Summer of Football is streaking ahead:

Rank	Tipster	Staked (pts)	P/L	ROI	ROC
1	SoF	33	14	42%	35%
2	Me!	33	3.7	11%	9.25%
3	FI	4	-0.4	-10%	-0.40%
4	FE	7	-3.15	-45%	-6.30%
5	Skeeve	44	-13.4	-30%	-17%
6	TFA	100	-24	-24%	-24%

Overall I have lost £865 on turnover of just over £20k. Not the end of the world by any means, especially as only one of the commercial tipsters is in profit. My major worry is the imbalance caused by the number of bets generated by TFA. In terms of bank size for each portfolio, they are relatively evenly balanced but this is definitely not the case for turnover. This service is also generating the biggest bet sizes, with the maximum possible bet (11 separate system selections on a home team - take note Blackburn, you owe me!) is nearly three times the maximum that would be bet on any other service.

So onwards and upwards, I have no doubt that FI will start churning out the bets soon to balance things out and FE is certain to be more productive once there is enough form in the bank. I would like to add that I found Matt's weekend punting pack very interesting and will be looking to use his A/E tables in aiding my selections.
Keep the faith, all that have been through this weekend, judging by twitter there have been a few!

Scary weekend

By my calculations I have just bet 57.5 points of a 100 point bank on TFA! I think "pray" is quite an accurate reading of the situation!


Must admit I told Graeme when he was creating my portfolio that I wasn't scared of the workload, and he did mention that this portfolio aims to turnover the whole bank every two weeks! So fingers crossed.

That said, it doesn't feel as much like a balanced portfolio at present, more like TFA and a few others. I am sure once Football Investor gets going with all its leagues, things will even out. Certainly my couple of dutched narrow victory selections on Liverpool and Chelsea seem very trivial indeed!

PS Blog seems to be slightly out of order as I was editing the labels.

Back, but not really!

Six months on, and distinct lack of posts. The truth is making your own selections is distinctively more time consuming than I had allocated to it. It was also not the solution for my betting as while a profit was gained, there was not enough turnover without enormous bets.

What it did highlight is which areas I am strong at (and obviously weak ones too). In terms of strengths, I made a lot of money with winning margin bets, notably 1 goal home wins and dutching 1 and 2 goal margins. The other more successful football areas were doubles and anytime goal scorers.

Areas of weakness were definitely asian handicaps and over/under bets, as well as straight 1X2 selections. In fact, my struggles with these types of bets gave me a nudge back towards portfolio betting, but more of that later.

The other sporting area that went well was top class racing, particularly National Hunt.

So where are we now? Well to a certain extent I have gone full circle with add ons. Following a portfolio of tipsters can be very rewarding but can take over your life somewhat. Having no control of when selections arrive is doable in this mobile age but after a while dominates your life! I have endeavoured to set up a portfolio that is easy to follow both in terms of getting the money on and having a set time for bet delivery. I have also concentrated mainly on football so there is a quiet period through the summer (although not dead).

So how is it made up?

The football Analyst
THe Football Investor
Skeeve
Football Elite
Summer of Football

I must admit while I was in the relative novice stage, I struggled with TFA and FI, and had a preference for the more analytical tipsters such as FE and SoF. While I still benefit from these types of write-ups, I am now more interested in turnover and ROC above my education, although that is by no means over.

In fact I would go so far to say I am most excited by TFA and FI, especially as both have custom made portfolios to my needs and targets. I am also sticking to these services as, on the whole they have regular posting times, doing away with the rather inhibiting random bet chasing at all times of the day.

I am also devoting a small fraction of my bankroll to my own selections, primarily on my football winning margins but also with top class jumps racing.

I stated in the title that I was back, but not really and the reason is I have no interest in being a tipster but feel that the blog can keep me focused and allow me to put the thoughts and ideas down that often drift away into the ether. Also since Rowan's move to gallops live, his handy blog roll is less useful as I don't go there as often (only for links). I am sure I could just set up a RSS feed but I will give this blogging malarkey another go!

I also, in the next few weeks, plan to set up two more blogs that focus on my part of the betting portfolio. These are not intended as tipping sites, just as a store of ideas and research, and again useful blogs/links.

Portfolio reminders

Last Thursday I was away from my computer and had to place TFA bets using my phone and someone else's laptop and while I got away with it, could not quite remember which of the systems I was playing. So I plan to use this blog as a depository of my portfolios that I can always refer to. I know, not very interesting for casual readers, but the main purpose is to improve my betting.

So TFA
100 pt bank

Home Stake Away Stake
6-22 1.00 0.50
7-21 1.00 0.50
7-22 1.00 0.50
8-21 1.00 0.50
8-22 1.00 0.50
31-42 1.00 0.50
33-41 1.00 0.50
33-42 1.00 0.50
TOX 1.00 0.50
STOY 1.00 0.50
STOZ 1.00 0.50
D3-D6 1.00 1.00
D3-D7 1.00 1.00

According to Graeme the portfolio made 247pts profit last season, and over the last 3 seasons, an average profit has been made of 200pts+. I will be overjoyed with half that!

Football Investor
100 pt bank

Combo system (no euro): 2pt Home, 1pt away
SZ Home >2.15: 1pt win if <2.75 1pt dnb if 2.75
SZ Away >2.75: 1pt DNB
Top flight Euro >4.0: 0.5pt win

Stew boss anticipates the all important ROC% averages 225% per season over the 8 seasons and 2012-13 was 169%. Anything close to that will be amazing!