Rather than running two blogs I thought I would merge the
two together. Sporting Value has always talked about the Narrow Victories
element of my betting so I feel mentioning research and the reasoning for some
selections could benefit readers, and just as importantly, myself. I often find
that fully explaining my bets can help the process and diminish errors.
So as an introduction to the merged blogs I thought I would
go through the definites, probables and possibles for Saturday’s bets. I also
want to show the different ways I can place these bets and how I have enhanced
the prices with experience.
Definites
Marseille vs
Valenciennes (Ligue 1, Saturday 16:00)
Marseille were one of last season’s bankers for this system
and results look like they are returning to pattern. Marseille have only had 3
home games where they have been priced at less than 1.7 this season and they
have won 2 of them by 1 or 2 and lost the other (luckily backed Reims in that
match, cheers Stewboss!). In 12/13, there was 11 such matches of which 6 were
won by 1 or 2, and 5 were either drawn or lost. So in not one of these 14
matches did OM win by more than 2 goals.
Valenciennes have a similar profile on the receiving foot.
This season there have been 3 matches where they are the considerable underdog
and they have drawn or won 2 of these and lost by 1 to Bordeaux. Again last
season gives a more convincing argument, with 6 relevant matches and 5 of those
they lost by less than two.
Having read James from Summer of Football’s interview with
Tipsters Mind, I really like this quote and feel it is similar to how I choose
my selections for Narrow Victories:
Our
service specialises in picking value around the evens mark. I am basically
looking for games where I feel the outcome is more than 50% likely to occur. If
we can do this then over the long run we will make profits.
James
Power, Summer of Football
So can we get a price around evens? When I first started I
used to dutch the 1 and 2 goal winning margin prices on Oddschecker:
Dutching 3.6 and 4.6 (although can’t get on at Ladbrokes
gives a price of 2.02.
I then developed a simultaneous equations method of
combining the win price with an Asian Handicap +2.5 for the opposition, which
generally gives a slightly better price. If you want more of an explanation, read
this.
So the win price is 1.6 and Valenciennes +2.5 is 1.15. If I
just copy in the Excel line from my spreadsheet, in this case you can see the
price is the same.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Stake | Win | +2.5 | St1 | St2 | Loss1 | Loss2 | Profit |
| Marseille | valenciennes | 100 | 1.6 | 1.15 | 126.37 | 175.82 | -100 | -100 | 102.20 |
Staking £126.37 at 1.6 and £175.82 at 1.15 leads to a profit
of £102.20 if both situations win. As only one can lose, a maximum of £100 can
be lost.
Now we can see both these prices are the same so might as
well just back the ditched winning margin bets with less money required. Where
we can improve the odds again (in most cases) is to look at the English
Handicap markets, in particular the draw element.
While the -1 draw (same as a 1 goal winning margin) is the
same, Unibet are offering 5.00 for a 2 goal winning margin, giving dutched odds
of 2.09.
And what I have found in the last couple of weeks, the fun
does not stop here! BetButler seem to have quite generous EH draw prices.
They offer 3.9 for a draw (+1.0), which after a 3%
commission gives a price of 3.81 and combining that with Unibet (or 888sport’s)
5.0 for +2 draw, gives a price of 2.16.
[Now 3.8, 3.71 after commission now 2.13]
It definitely pays to shop around! Obviously I am not going
to go through all the explanations and screen grabs for all the selections
today, but hopefully you will see where I get the odds from.
AC Milan vs Verona (Serie A, Saturday 19:45)
AC Milan are not having a great season but one aspect of
last season’s form is still there. In 12/13 Milan won 9 of the 15 (60%) matches
where they were priced at 1.7 or less by a 1 or 2 goal winning margin. This
season they have won 3 out of 5 (60%).
Verona were promoted last year so no relevant data but this
year when a considerable underdog, they have lost 3 out of 4 by less than 3
goals (75%).
There has been a change of manager at Milan but I believe
the fundamentals won’t change instantly so better than 50% chance rule stands,
now just a matter of getting a price of evens or better.
The best win and +2.5 prices of 1.5 and 1.23 gives us a
price of 2.08. Dutching the 4.1 at BetButler for +1 (3.95 after comm) with 4.8
at Unibet gives an enhanced price of 2.17, which fits the bill perfectly.
Standard Liege vs Oostende (Belgian Jupiler League, Saturday
17:00)
Standard sit top of the Jupiler League but have only won one
home match when priced at less than 1.7 by more than 2 goals. In fact 63% (5/8)
have been by the magic one or two goals. Last season they won 50% of their
relevant home matches in this way.
Oostende were promoted this season and look to fit the bill
quite well with 50% of their relevant away matches being lost by 1 or 2, and
only 1 going over that.
Pricewise, the Asian Venn diagram of win and +2.5 gives a
price of 2.04, while the best we can do with Dutching winning margins is evens
(4.0 and 4.0).
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Stake | Win | +2.5 | St1 | St2 | Loss1 | Loss2 | Profit |
| Standard | Oostende | 100 | 1.29 | 1.4 | 158.37 | 145.93 | -100 | -100 | 104.30 |
So given a nominal stake of £100 (max loss), £158.37 @ 1.29
at Pinnacle for Standard win and £145.93 @1.4 with Bet365 is the way here.
Gent vs Kortrijk (Jupiler League, Saturday 19:00)
This season Gent are running at 67% (4/6) and last season
were at 50% (5/10). Kortrijk are losing to our circumstances at 67% (2/3) and
60% (3/5) in 12/13.
This time the Venn diagram method gives us a price of 2.15
(1.7 and 1.14). while ditching Unibet’s 5.4 for +2 draw with their 3.85 for a
+1 draw gives a price of 2.25, which looks the way to go here. Obviously the
1.7 price is absolute borderline but I prefer this bet to a -0.75 handicap as
neither Gent or Kortrijk have been involved in larger victory margin matches at
these prices.
Celtic vs Motherwell (Scottish Premier, Saturday 15:00)
Celtic have a very strong home trend this season with 7 of
their 9 matches in this price bracket (who am I kidding, they are all in this
price bracket!) being won by just 1 or 2 goals. Not one of their home matches
has gone over that mark! This is a different story to their away matches, maybe
like Bayern they feel secure at home and don’t need to push.
Motherwell lost their only relevant match away (also to Celtic),
1-0 and have only conceded 11 goals in all 10 of their away matches this
season.
Given these stats I would not want to take the even money
handicap mark of -1.5, but will try to maximise my 1 to 2 goal margin. Using
the win/+2.5 prices of 1.34/1.3 gives us 1.94 but dutching the best winning
margins of 3.96 (Betbutler +1) and 4.3 (Betbutler +2) gives 2.06.
That covers the definites, next on to the probable. I will
most likely back these but might try to get team news, conformational
predictions elsewhere from sites like whoscored etc. and go over them again in
Football Form Labs to be sure.
Probables
Arsenal vs Fulham (Premier League, Saturday 15:00)
Historically Arsenal haven’t fitted the bill for this type
of side but are now running at a 57% strike rate, with only 1 match – back in
October against Norwich – going over a 2 goal winning margin.
Fulham are a trickier side to evaluate, especially with Hull
6 Fulham 0 still in the mind! This season they are 2 losses by 1 or 2 and 2 by
more, but those two were their last two, Liverpool and Everton.
Certainly Arsenal’s forward problems would point towards a
narrow victory but not quite convinced yet!
Pricewise, the win/+2.5 is currently paying out at 2.08 and
the ditched winning margins at 2.2 which might be enough, but as an Arsenal fan
might just hold fire.
Betis vs Real Madrid (La Liga, Saturday 15:00)
Real Madrid on the road have been good to this system with 6
out of 9 of their away matches in this price range have gone our way and only 1
has gone over. Certainly the impression is that goals are harder to find for
Real, but at the same time their defence is quite sound.
Betis, on the whole keep it quite close for a bottom side
with only Barcelona, a different proposition on these rules, winning by more
than 2.
Looking at the markets you can get 2.26 combining the win
(1.33) with the +2.5 (1.45) but 2.3 dutching Betbutler’s 4.7 on each (4.59
after comm).
This is one of the reasons it is beneficial for me to write
this as I had this bet as a probable to start with, I now think it is a
definite!
Possibles
These are the ones that have a small sample size but an
element of temptation or slightly negative stats but momentum in this
direction. It is unlikely I will back these ones, it is just to get a feel.
Manchester City vs Cardiff (Premier League, Saturday 15:00)
At first glance this is not a fixture I would think to look
at in much detail, but 43% of City’s games in this bracket fit the bill. A lot
of their big victories are against rivals who play more like Arsenal, Spurs and
United. Yes Norwich did get thumped 7-0, but Palace and Hull have kept them to
1 and 2 nil.
Cardiff have a 2/3 record here and the Chelsea 4-1 loss was
dubious at best with the Eto’o keeper incident and Cardiff did take the lead.
Priced at around 2.25 either way you do it, there is
temptation but not enough for me. If Cardiff can keep the score down it would
make City an option in the future as they would be a 50% team – last year 60%
of their home matches when under 1.7 ended up narrow victories.
Lierse vs Club Brugge (Jupiler League, Saturday 19:00)
Away favourites do work very well on this system,
unfortunately there is not quite enough data for this to work for me. Brugge
have won 2/3 away matches in this price range by less than 3, but as last year
the record doesn’t fit (2/3 by 3 or more) I will leave it alone.
One of the major problems of deciphering away favourites is
that there is much less data on the home teams as there are many fewer examples
where they are major underdogs at home. Lierse have only encountered this
situation once this season and lost 5-0 to Anderlecht. Last season, again, it
was only once and they drew 1-1 with the same team!
I hope I haven’t bored you all to tears with this, and even
if I have it has been very useful for me. I will try to return on Saturday with
Sunday’s picks but no guarantees as my wife is away in Budapest and I am home
alone with the kids.
So in conclusion the definites are:
Marseille @ 2.16
Milan @ 2.17
Standard Liege @2.04
Gent @2.25
Celtic @ 2.06
Real Madrid @ 2.3
And the Probable is Arsenal @ 2.2
Good luck all this weekend
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