January review - change not always a good thing

 Three months of profit in a row, but January was very much an ‘only just’ profit. The portfolio ended up a measly £92 in the black on the back of over £47,000 being bet, which is by far the highest monthly turnover. This is in part due to 3 services being added to the team, and to be honest as a group they did produce a small loss. But I am still confident that I am doing the right thing in expanding.

So how did everyone get on:

Rank	Tipster	Staked	P/L	ROI	ROC
1	Narrow Victories	28	4.2	15%	11%
2	Tennis Ratings	52	4.38	8%	9%
3	The Football Analyst	142	8.5	6%	9%
4	Football Investor	95	7.4	8%	7%
5	Laurent Marty	22	0.8	4%	2%
6	Club Gowi	37	-0.6	-2%	-1%
7	Football Elite	37	-0.5	-1%	-1%
8	Summer of Football	27	-1.9	-7%	-5%
9	FLB DR	28	-6.5	-23%	-13%
10	Skeeve	40	-14.3	-36%	-18%

This is the first month that my efforts have come out top, which is rather pleasing, but given the small sums involved I am still very glad to be following a portfolio. Of the original 7 services, 4 made a profit, two very much against their owners own experiences, two made insignificant losses and one, Skeeve, had another blowout. Of the new services one made a decent profit, one a minor loss and one succumbed to a bad couple of weekends.

Overall, since August, we are now approaching a £3,000 profit on an overall turnover of well over £150,000. This is a ROI of around 2% and a ROC of around 5%. I need to address the ROC figure in more depth as not sure how to quantify as new services have been added, and to be quite honest there is an element of leveraging as I am not increasing the overall bank size to a similar ratio.

Rank	Tipster	Staked	P/L	ROI	ROC
1	Football Investor	407	44.3	11%	44%
2	Summer of Football	109	14.6	13%	37%
3	Narrow Victories	157	9.25	6%	23%
4	Tennis Ratings	52	4.38	8%	9%
5	Laurent Marty	77.5	2.95	4%	6%
6	Club Gowi	37	-0.6	-2%	-1%
7	The Football Analyst	716.5	-10.3	-1%	-10%
8	FLB DR	28	-6.5	-23%	-13%
9	Football Elite	137	-10.15	-7%	-20%
10	Skeeve	122	-23.5	-19%	-29%

After nominating Football Investor as my SBC Tipster of the Year while in second place, I am rather pleased to see it now take the top spot, based on ROC.

Sporting Value Confidence Ratings (last months rating in brackets)

Narrow Victories – 3 (3)

Would you believe it, best performing service, although not technically a service. I have taken the decision this month to merge the Narrow Victories blog into Sporting Value. I spent too much time thinking I need to update both blogs that I ended up doing none, so now there is no competition, both will appear in the same place – here! I also sometimes mention my choices on Twitter but I doubt this will ever be a regular or complete list of bets, due to time constraints.

League	Bets	Profit
A-League	4	-186
Belg	2	4
Champ	1	115
La Liga	3	129
Ligue 1	3	124
Portugal	1	110
Premier	6	493
Scot	3	-300
Serie A	4	-183
Bundesliga	1	121
Grand Total	28	427

As the table shows, the Premier League was the best performing league, in fact if I had just stuck to English matches, the profit would have been even better. The biggest loser was Scotland, or Celtic to be more appropriate! Celtic had a 77% strike rate at home before I started backing them and then the next 3 were won by 3 goals or more. At home, not once had they done this in 13/14. More annoyingly, the match after I decided to ignore them they beat St Mirren 1-0 at home!

Tennis Ratings – 3 (n/a)

A great start from this relatively new service, despite a poor run at the Australian Open. I am an absolute sucker for a stats-based tipster and this really fits the bill. In fact given that the stats are readily available as it is primarily a trading service, it is doubly impressive. I have started with a rating of 3 as the record only goes back to August 2013, but I anticipate raising the bank level soon or possibly dipping my toe in the trading waters.

Anyone else who appreciates the more numerical side of tipping and research should check out his excellent service, his website and also his excellent articles for Pinnacle on tennis. At the very least, follow him on Twitter!

Both the ATP and WTA tour have been profitable and so far I have managed to get most of the prices. It could well be that as it is a trading site that most action takes place in play and less pressure is put of the bookie prices.

	Values
Row Labels	Count of Player Backed	Sum of Stake	Sum of Profit/Loss
ATP	39	23.25	1.6
WTA	53	29.23	2.78
Grand Total	92	52.48	4.38

One of the reasons I would like to raise my bank is that some tips can be for 0.15 points, which is £15 for me and sometimes almost feels a tad futile. But a turnover of over £5000 a month is good, although that was a Grand Slam month so lets wait and see how it holds up.

The Football Analyst – 3.5 (3.5)

Graeme wrote on his monthly summary:

“It’s difficult to see how you can make a profit this month, even with a well diversified portfolio. To make a profit, you needed to be following as many Draw and Euro bets as possible and as I said on a recent results post, if that was your strategy this season, you were following the wrong systems!”

Admittedly I do follow a couple of draw systems (D3-D6 & D3-D7) but they have the lesser returns and I have not followed any of the European bets. Where I feel I have turned a profit this month is through two parts of my portfolio design. Firstly, and much credit for this goes to Graeme, is to play home bets to double stakes. Secondly even though I followed 11 systems to start with, I have now limited myself to a maximum of 4 times the stake.

1X2	Count	Stake	Profit
Away	40	4960	265.2
Draw	10	1200	732.8
Home	30	5200	-314.4
Grand Total	80	11360	683.6

TFA had a fantastic start to the month with aways to the fore, in fact the whole portfolio was into profit after a couple of weeks. After that the aways fell off a cliff and homes, and particularly the draws saved the day.

League	Bets	Stake	Profit
Bsq Prem	13	1880	-264
Championship	13	2480	344
League 1	14	2080	-135.2
League 2	24	2840	575.2
Premiership	7	560	390
SPL	9	1520	-226.4
Grand Total	80	11360	683.6

League 2 and the Premiership were the best performing. Like Narrow Victories, Scotland let the side down and I still have nightmares of having £320 riding on Partick at home! The Conference away bets also had a particularly poor run, losing £760 by themselves.

Stake	Bets	Stake	Profit	Sacrifice
40	5	200	-50	0
80	24	2000	-390.4	0
120	7	840	-432	0
160	33	5280	1992	-48
240	2	480	-64.8	0
320	8	2560	-371.2	485.6
Grand Total	79	11360	683.6	437.6

I mentioned that I was limiting myself to a maximum of 4 systems per bet, and by my calculations this has save me over £400 this month. In fact the big home bets, 3 points or more, are also loss making, again Partick springs to mind. The previous table tells me I lost a little by limiting aways and gained much by limiting homes.

Portfolio design is a hot topic at the moment with Graeme and Steve from Daily25 debating the relevant structures of TFA. One thing I feel I can add is that by taking a maximum 4 out of 11 approach to my portfolio I can add or subtract individual systems if I feel there is a need. I have added 31-41 on the back of a long run of success for 31 and am considering adding D2-D6, D2-D7 but again limiting to a maximum 2 point draw bet. I am also contemplating setting a limit of 2 from each of Established, New and Miscellaneous to further decorrelate, if that is a word. 

Football Investor – 4 (3.5)

An upgrade is deserved for Stewboss as through thick and thin, this service just keeps producing. Stewboss has also claimed this to be a tough month but again I seem to have come out with a healthy, if unspectacular, profit. But looking in further detail, if I had just stuck to English bets, I would have had a fantastic month.

League	Bets	Stakes	Profit
Championship	15	1840	1252
Conference	3	240	-80
La Liga	6	480	-480
League 1	3	320	-320
League 2	40	3200	46.4
Ligue 1	2	160	-80
Premiership	8	911.42	575
Scots Prem	4	320	-160
Serie A	4	240	-160
Grand Total	85	7711.42	593.982

Looking at it by system, Combo has been the obvious star and the home element particularly.

System	Bets	Stake	Profit
Combo	33	3680	1313.6
Away	20	1600	64
Home	13	2080	1249.6
Euro	1	40	-40
Home	1	40	-40
SZ	50	3911.42	-599.618
Away	37	2880	-737.6
Home	13	1031.42	137.982
Grand Total	84	7631.42	673.982

With regards to the Top Flight Euro, the whole European market has been a thorny issue and I hope to address this later in the post, if I still have the energy!

Laurent Marty – 3 (3)

A small profit which would have been better if I could have got a price on O42.5, but ended up at O43.5. You guessed it, total points 43! Still not convinced I will carry on after April as subs costs very high and returns are not at that price level yet. But for the mean time …

ClubGowi – 3 (n/a)

A small loss, but I don’t feel this is representative of the service, as I missed a winning bet in French Ligue 2 while on a trip to Dublin. Got all the others on but missed the bottom tip in my haste. Keith does write some great previews but there is a lot of content to wade through. Maybe a short summary box at the beginning of the email could be beneficial.

Also during my subscription period, most members had a big win on Na Li ante-post in the Aussie Open. Ante post betting seems to play a significant part of the service – big win on Superbowl this weekend - and to be quite honest I am not a great one for playing these so will see how it goes. I know Keith is not a big fan of detailed results but it would be nice to see what proportion of profits come from said AP bets and if it would be sensible for me to leave them.

Overall am happy with the service and while I do not always get the prices, the turnover is solid and the write-ups are an education in betting analysis.

Football Elite – 3 (3)

Again, a very small loss that should have been a profit, as I adapted one of his bets to fit with my NV selections. Matt backed Guincamp 1X against PSG but I thought it was classic PSG by 1 or 2 goals territory. So his 3.13 bet was played as +1.25 at 2.05. The match was a draw so a point was lost, even thought the bet still won.

There are definite signs of a revival at the Football Elite, which are needed after a flat couple of seasons. Most of the time it chugs along but it has been producing more blowouts than corresponding big weekends. Fortunately the last couple of weekends (including first one in February) have shown large gains and long may it continue. It is slightly concerning that in a year of great home bias, a home specialist service is not raking it in but maybe that is for the second half of the season.

Summer of Football – 3.5 (3.5)

A loss on the month but the service is still in a solid position for the season. Turnover has been up this month, which does raise the odd question as James built his recovery on a more selective approach. But reading the emails James does still seem very aware of previous downfall and is convinced by the value of his bets.

League	Stakes	Profit
A League	600	-450
Championship	450	180
EPL	150	-150
France 2	2850	131.25
Grand Total	4050	-288.75

The A League has been the main cause of losses this month so lets hope the results settle down, as James can put his local knowledge to good use.

Football Form Labs Daily Reports – 2.5 (n/a)

Back in my November summary I said of this service:

FFL is still alive although I am not enjoying following a service that does not announce when it's tips go up. In fact I have often forgotten to check which does not do it justice. Also I am not convinced if there is an edge beyond certain angles and even those do not have the sample size to be sure. As I constantly use the data side of the service I will not be cancelling but I need a bit more convincing to add it to the portfolio on a full time basis.

Recently they had a big update of their results and analysis, showing good profits in the big European leagues. As I hinted at in my FI comments, Europe has been a problem area for me. Both the European side of FI SZ and FE were not thriving and NV were relying on the Premier League for a lot of their profits. Given FFLs success, especially with O/Us, this seems to have a place in my portfolio.

They have also been announcing when tips go up on Twitter so that has addressed my other issue - namely that I sometimes forget to check for the bets. This is not quite as ridiculous as it sounds as bets for the weekend usually come out on a Friday and it is already a very busy day for the portfolio.

So good reasons for adding the bets, unfortunately they have had a couple of poor weekends and with the number of bets they churn out, it has led to a big dent. Obviously very early days, so must give it more time.

Skeeve – 2.5 (2.5)

I mentioned last summary that January did not start well, especially as stakes had returned to max levels. Unfortunately this continued all through the month and we are now nearly 30% down for the season. My thoughts on the service are still very similar to last month’s musings and just hoping for an upturn, but becoming less and less confident of it happening.

Running out of steam now, so I shall end with a bookie update.

I have started to be referred to traders by William Hill, although they are letting me have about £100 in most cases. The major worry, especially for NV is that BetButler are restricting some of my English Handicap +1/+2 Draw bets. Not what you expect from a broker, but admittedly I can’t find the prices they are quoting elsewhere!