Thursday, 13 February 2014

Figuring out the Skating

I'll be quite honest, my wife isn't the biggest fan of my betting habits, even though it pays for most of the luxuries in our life. But this week has seen some incredible teamwork which, win or lose, has been most enjoyable.

She is a Figure Skating fanatic and I don't mean doing it, she loves watching and attending the major events. Personally I think it is a fine excuse to go to places like Nice, Budapest, Zagreb and Paris regularly but I suppose it was in Sheffield a couple of years ago!

She really does know her stuff and also the best places to get the further information that is always of help to the gambling fraternity, such as the best forums etc. Unfortunately it is one sport that is rarely priced up by the bookies. One advantage of the Olympics is that bookies seem to be falling over themselves to now do so, although as I have found out, to quite restrictive stakes.

The key part to getting ahead of the game has been the team tournament that started the day before the opening ceremony, that the market makers took so long to take notice of.

The Pairs competition has already taken place as well, and the jollies walked it, luckily they were the first part of a double for me with the other shortie, Davis/White in the Ice Dance.

The Men's event takes place today, and I took a punt on Hanyu during his skate in the team tournament. Long time favourite Patrick Chan had already skated and not to his usual standards. Not only that there was no evidence of Chan-flation, a perceived score bonus that he usually benefits from, and even Robin Cousins mentioned this in commentary. Since losing to Chan in Paris in November, Hanyu has really picked up the pace and has been outscoring the Canadian, including in the high profile Grand Prix final.

So while Hanyu was flying on the ice I took 3/1 with Hills and this is now down to a best priced 6/4. I do fear Chan, but am hoping that Hanyu's better short routine will give me a chance to hedge Chan if he drifts, as he has a fine Free programme.

While Patrick did not get his Chan-flation, we both felt Plushenko was very kindly marked in helping Russia to win the Team gold. Two of my other bets are opposing him, one with Fernandez to beat the Russian (only £22 as that is all Hills would let me have) and Machida to get a podium.

I have also placed a couple of match bets, utilising the data I collected on all the quoted competitors and running it by my 'expert' for inside knowledge, injuries and training reports!

127.05 127.05

Probably my strongest position is in the Ladies, where again the Team event was key. Julia Lipnitskaia is the 15 year old Russian darling who has really started scoring big since the turn of the year. The big favourite all year has been Yuna Kim, the reigning Olympic Champion, but she hasn't been seen much this year. Julia outperformed the then second favourite, Mao Asada, in the team Short event and I dived in with Bet365 at 7/1. 

Julia has a fantastic Free routine, full of emotion, to the Schindler's List soundtrack, and once she scored highly in the team event, she was odds on is some places for the Ladies Gold. She is now back out to a best priced 2.75, but this move has enabled me to take a hedge approach by backing the jolly at reasonable prices.

Obviously I could look a bit of a plonker if none of these win but it has been great fun and makes you realise that there are certain events that you can be ahead of the odds compilers, and in the long-run this can only be positive. And if my wife can see there are good angles to play in betting, not just, "you can't predict the future", all the better.

No comments:

Post a Comment