February review - Gathering Momentum

February was a record month for the Sporting Value portfolio, both in terms of profit and turnover. In all just short of £3000 was made on turnover of over £60000. This is now four months in the black in a row and most bets are now put on in confidence, rather than dread. Again the performance would have been even stronger if I hadn’t of added extra services back in January but it is all a learning curve and I am now very much of the opinion that turnover is crucial to long term success.

So lets see how everyone has got on in February:

Rank	Tipster	Staked	P/L	ROI	ROC
1	Football Investor	134	41.3	31%	41%
2	The Football Analyst	163	24.1	15%	24%
3	Football Elite	47	11.2	24%	22%
4	Laurent Marty	22.5	1.5	7%	3%
5	Narrow Victories	27	0.7	3%	2%
6	Tennis Ratings	18.7	-0.7	-4%	-1%
7	Club Gowi	134	-3.7	-3%	-5%
8	Skeeve	33	-8	-24%	-10%
9	Summer of Football	20	-7.4	-37%	-19%
10	FLB DR	63.5	-16.6	-26%	-33%

As you can see the shining stars were the ratings services, with Football Investor making more profit for me than I got in total. Over £3300 and 41% ROC in a month is incredible work. The one that has caused me most anguish has been Football Form Labs Daily Report, which followed a poor opening month with a terrible second.

Overall, since August, the portfolio has bet over £228000 and now has a healthy looking profit of £5860. ROI has risen from 2% to around 3% and ROC is into double figures, 10% on theoretical allocated banks in full, and 13% on the leveraged amount.

Rank	Tipster	Staked	P/L	ROI	ROC
1	Football Investor	541	85.6	16%	86%
2	Narrow Victories	184	9.95	5%	25%
3	Summer of Football	129	7.2	6%	18%
4	The Football Analyst	880	13.8	2%	14%
5	Laurent Marty	100	4.45	4%	9%
6	Tennis Ratings	71	3.68	5%	7%
7	Football Elite	184	1.05	1%	2%
8	Club Gowi	171	-4.3	-3%	-6%
9	Skeeve	155	-31.5	-20%	-39%
10	FLB DR	92	-23.1	-25%	-46%

Sporting Value Confidence Ratings (last months rating in brackets)

Football Investor – 4 (4)

I think this is probably the best month I have ever had with a tipster, and Stewboss just keeps turning it on. Whichever way one looks at the figures, they all seem rosy.

System	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
Combo	48	5120	2151.2	42%
SZ	68	5440	792	15%
TFE	4	160	360	225%
Grand Total	120	10720	3303.2	31%

Combo has been the real star, but the safe Strike Zone Plus bets keep chugging along and the Top Flight Euro big pricers produced again. I even missed one priced at around 6!

	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI
Away	75	5920	3132	53%
Home	45	4800	171.2	4%
Grand Total	120	10720	3303.2	31%

Despite a strong start to the home bets, it was the Aways that made this month with a 53% ROI on 75 bets – that is incredible in my book.

League	Bets	Stakes	Profits	ROI
Championship	26	2880	422.4	15%
Conference	2	160	-80	-50%
La Liga	6	400	0	0%
League 1	21	1840	1491.2	81%
League 2	46	3680	1336.8	36%
Ligue 1	2	160	-80	-50%
Premiership	9	960	509.6	53%
Scots Prem	3	240	-64.8	-27%
Serie A	5	400	-232	-58%
Grand Total	120	10720	3303.2	31%

Again it has been the main 4 leagues of England that have stormed through, especially Leagues 1 and 2. My only reservation about Football Investor bets is the Strike Zone European bets, but everyone seems to have struggled with the big Euro leagues this year.

The Football Analyst – 3.5 (3.5)

I mentioned last month that TFA had sneaked into the black before dropping back into losses but I can now confirm that it is a profitable service for the season so far.

League	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI	Sacrifice
Bsq Prem	13	1590	-13.7	-1%	80
Championship	13	1760	149.6	9%	200
League 1	22	3580	1177.6	33%	-972.8
League 2	30	4040	820.8	20%	20
Premiership	15	1840	-308	-17%	540
SPL	2	240	104	43%	0
Grand Total	95	13050	1930.3	15%	-132.8

Like FI, the big gains were made in League 1 and League 2, and again it was aways that produced the bulk of the profits.

1X2	Bets	Stakes	Profit	ROI	Sacrifice
Away	47	5960	1399.2	19%	-1008
Draw	15	2080	196.8	9%	0
Home	33	5010	334.3	6%	875.2
Grand Total	95	13050	1930.3	13%	-132.8

Saying that, I must credit the draw bets for smoothing out the whole experience of following Graeme’s bets in the last couple of months. In fact I have now added D2-D6 and D2-D7 to my portfolio, but will only stake a maximum of two points on a single draw.

As you can see, I have given away £132 by limiting the number of system bets to 4 with the homes and draws (from a possible 13) to much success this year, but I am beginning to see I may need to limit the homes more (as they are already double staked) and give the aways a little more wiggle room. I am not sure if I will do so during this season, and how, but will take it into account for next. While I ‘saved’ £875 by not betting over £320 on a single home bet, I ‘lost’ just over a grand by limiting away bets to £160. Maybe a compromise of £240 on each could be the solution!

Football Elite – 3 (3)

The best month of the season for Matt, over at Football Elite, and while there is still a feeling around the blogo/twittersphere that this is one to drop for next season, I am finding myself regaining confidence.

I must admit I am a bit of a sucker for his emails in times of trouble. Like Graeme and Stewboss he puts the current situation in context of long term results and the data is usually convincing.

League/type	Bets	Stakes	Profits	ROI
Bundesliga	9	1080	228	21%
DNB	3	360	612	170%
Win	6	720	-384	-53%
La Liga	7	840	126	15%
1X	1	120	210	175%
Win	6	720	-84	-12%
Ligue 1	12	1440	318	22%
DNB	2	240	-120	-50%
Win	10	1200	438	37%
Prem League	14	1680	864	51%
1X	1	120	300	250%
DNB	8	960	780	81%
Win	5	600	-216	-36%
Serie A	5	600	-198	-33%
DNB	1	120	282	235%
Win	4	480	-480	-100%
Grand Total	47	5640	1338	24%

Again, most of the profits have come when he has taken on big names and taken an element of cover with the draw. Win only bets are still running at quite a loss but seem to be coming round. Certainly the first weekend in March saw more progress with these bets, so it could still be variance.

League/Type	Bets	Profit
Bundesliga	32	450
1X	1	-120
DNB	10	714
Win	21	-144
La Liga	26	-36
1X	2	450
DNB	1	-120
Win	23	-366
Ligue 1	46	759.6
1X	2	30
DNB	2	-120
Win	42	849.6
Prem League	50	-48
1X	1	300
DNB	27	654
Win	22	-1002
Serie A	36	-822
DNB	9	534
Win	27	-1356
Grand Total	190	303.6
Type	Bets	Profit
1X	6	660
DNB	49	1662
Win	135	-2018.4
Grand Total	190	303.6

Looking at the season as a whole, 1X and DNB selections have made over £2300 profit at nearly 35% ROI. Win only bets are much more plentiful and losing 15% ROI.

Football Elite has scraped into profit for the season as a whole, so lets hope that this momentum keeps us going in the right direction.

Laurent Marty – 3 (3)

I mentioned last time that my subscription was due to run out in April, unfortunately it is actually March 8^th. With this in mind I have included the bets from the 1^st of this month as I am pretty positive I will not be renewing. This is not to say Laurent isn’t a talented tipster, it is mainly due to the fact that Betadvisor subs are so goddam expensive and there isn’t the turnover to justify paying that price. February had just 24 bets, averaging out at around 20 a month. This is OK if ROI is high but single figures aren’t enough for me.

Sorry Laurent, I’m out.

Narrow Victories – 3 (3)

No table topping performance from me this month, but a slight profit shouldn’t be sniffed at. Losing a third Stan James account won’t help, as they were usually well priced on the EH-1 Draw, neither will BetButler limiting a few selections, but I am carrying on.

Overall profit has now reached the £1000 mark, which doesn’t seem a lot for the hours put in, but it is a fine educational process.

League	Bets	Profit	ROI
Belgium	4	234	59%
Bundesliga	3	-74	-25%
Championship	1	-100	-100%
Copa Del Rey	1	153	153%
Croatia	1	102	102%
La Liga	3	-300	-100%
Ligue 1	1	-100	-100%
Portugal	5	112	22%
Premier	4	20	5%
Serie A	2	13	7%
Turkey	1	-100	-100%
A League	1	108	108%
Grand Total	27	68

Tennis Ratings – 3 (3)

A flat month with relatively low turnover. This is not surprising as there were no Grand Slam or Masters series events and Dan does not bet on Davis Cup or Fed Cup. It will be interesting to see what sort of levels of turnover Indian Wells and Miami produce this month.

I also dipped my toe into trading this month. Two out of three trades were profitable and the third lost me peanuts, but it is quite time consuming and stressful. It is also exhilarating and I really believe Dan’s data gives a real edge, so am definitely looking to do more.

ClubGowi – 3 (3)

Two losing months to begin with is never the best introduction to a tipster, but on the whole I am happy to be following the service. There are issues, namely the availability of prices in smaller leagues and also the lack of analysable results, but the turnover is certainly there, and more than enough evidence of expertise.

Sport/League	Bets	Stakes	Profit
Football	96	12111.5	-170
England
Ch	8	1050	-191
Cup	2	275	286.25
EPL	16	1701.5	-32.25
L1	5	675	-350
L2	4	500	-425
Europe
UCL	5	625	-85
UEL	7	950	-537.5
France
Cup	5	410	460.75
FL1	10	1550	103.75
FL2	15	1950	167.5
Italy
Cup	2	275	25
SA	11	1350	-152.25
Spain
Cup	3	350	428
LL	3	450	131.75
Golf	12	1150	-371.25
USA
PGA	8	725	-725
WMP	4	425	353.75
NFL	1	150	172.5
USA
NFL	1	150	172.5
Grand Total	109	13411.5	-368.75

I have been particularly impressed with Keith’s tipping in domestic cup matches, which he seems to play with a very strong ‘motivation’ factor to the fore.

Skeeve – 2.5 (2.5)

A fantastic first weekend in March does not hide what has been a poor February (and January, and season as a whole). I do have many thoughts about Skeeve’s service that I have hinted at but am going to hold these for another post as he seems to be on the war path at the moment! I think there is a very interesting debate to be had about pricing, adding new services and what we are paying for, which I know Steve at Daily25.com has started. Having written about 2000 words this morning already, my mind isn’t quite there to add my bit at present.

 Summer of Football – 3 (3.5)

Not a pretty couple of months for James, but we are still in profit, I have ummed and aahed about a small downgrade due to being a little wary of the memories of last Spring. Ligue 2 seems to be main offender but there were very few hiding places in the data.

League	Bets	Stakes	Profit
A League	4	600	-30	-5%
Championship	2	300	-225	-75%
EPL	4	600	-176.25	-29%
France 2	9	1350	-607.5	-45%
La Liga	1	150	-75	-50%
Grand Total	20	3000	-1113.75	-37%

Type

Bets

Stakes

Profit

AH-	10	1500	-858.75
AH+	6	900	41.25
Goals	4	600	-296.25

Analysing the type of bets didn’t help much either, so lets hope this weekend’s 2/2 indicates a return to form.

Football Form Labs Daily Reports – 2 (2.5)

I’m afraid this experiment hasn’t gone well so far. In less than two months I have blown away just short of half the bank. The poor numbers are slightly exaggerated  by the way I played them: I ignored clashes with established services (FLB did well on those bets resulting in a double whammy) and played 0.5pt bets, when more than 1 per match, as whole points (they did not)!

To cap it off, Fiden’s announced their best weekend ever in the midst of the carnage. Now I have, mistakenly it seems, always considered this as a Fiden’s lite product where I can get the turnover and particularly the O/U bets to compliment my portfolio but now feeling this is a bit naïve of me.

So what to do now, well surprisingly I am still considering Fidens as an investment, but still as part of the portfolio and am still playing the O/U bets as they rarely clash with other selections. I will share my thoughts very soon as part of a turnover vs. profit post.

Like last month, have now run out of steam so will plan to write further this month on issues other than a profit report. Areas I want to look at, as well as the turnover issue mentioned earlier, are bookmakers – both good and bad and trading.

Good luck to you all.