Friday, 8 February 2013

One goal margins for Friday

Interlull over and back to league action. As a Gooner it was great to see Jack starring for England but from a betting point of view these friendlies don't do it for me. It was interesting to see Football Elite having a change of approach, I am almost tempted to resubscribe to find out how it goes but I have chose this path and must stick to it. Along with Summer of Football, these two are the ones I would still like to follow but I must admit I enjoy analyzing their markets and prefer not having to drop everything the minute the email comes through to get the odds.

On to Friday's action, the Watford match is the first of my 1 goal margin selections. This one should be a tight match, and what points me to this bet is Palace's recent for. There has been a drop-off and they have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (drew other 3), but most importantly all of them have been by 1 goal. Watford have won 7 home matches this season, including 4 by 1 goal so at around 3/1 this is my play.

£30 Watford to win by 1 goal 4.2 Betfair, 4.1 Ladbrokes

Australia produced a 1 goal winning margin overnight but it was the one I thought would have produced a bigger win for Adelaide and given they had over 15 minutes against 10 men I was surprised they didn't. It does make me wonder if I should follow this system (mentioned last Friday) regardless, but for the time being I will try and use filters to improve chances.

Mind you I still think the three remaining matches have a fair chance of repeating the dose, although the pessimist in me can't see all 4 games being a result! Firstly Melbourne Heart play perennial 1 goal away losers Perth Glory. Perth have now lost 7 of their 9 away matches by 1 and Heart have 3 1 goal home victories.

£30 Melbourne Heart to win by 1 goal 3.75 Bet365

West Sydney has one of the smallest 1 goal winning margin prices I have seen at 3.5 but I still think it is value. The Wanderers have 4 one goal home wins and Newcastle have the same away.

£30 WS Wanderers to win by 1 goal 3.5 Bet365

While I am at it, Sydney also look at good bet on Saturday into Sunday. I should list this with tomorrow's bets but I have already mentioned I have a liking for all the rest to be 1 goal home wins so here it is. Odds of 5.0 with Bet365 look generous, especially as Sydney have 3 1 goal home wins this season and Brisbane have lost 5 of their away matches by 1 goal. Sydney are underdogs for this match but I can't justify the strength of support for Brisbane.

£30 Sydney to win by 1 goal 5.0 Bet365

While it is unlikely that all the matches in a weekend will all be 1 goal wins for the home side, we only need 1 of the 3 to make a profit, and like lottery numbers, they are all independent.

Might be back tonight with Saturday's selections as nearly ready to go or possibly Saturday. 

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