Monday, 4 February 2013

Well that puts a different spin on things

Well first weekend of being a tipster of sorts is over. I say tipster in the loosest sense of the word as that is not really the objective of this blog. This is really a story of transition from a successful but in the end restricted portfolio investor - thank for the mention by the way, Rowan - to someone going it alone. Given that I am making my own selections, I thought I might as well share them as well, along with any theories or trends that I come across.

Probably the most successful part of an otherwise below average weekend was the theory bets on 1 goal home wins in Australia, of which 2 out of 3 won. With the international break this week I will try to find some other leagues that follow similar lines, although this market is not the most liquid. I think this is one of the main differences between following tipsters and going it by yourself: Betfair prices would dry up instantly and accounts would be marked pretty quickly if 40 or so bets on Melbourne Victory to beat the Melbourne Heart by one goal was tipped by a major player. I did follow Football Betting Data for a while, but it was very hard to get any amount of money on after a while and bets such as over 10.5 corners quickly turned to over 11.5, making it a tricky decision to take a worse price or a worse spread. This was one of the main reasons I stopped following Laurent Marty in the rugby as handicap spreads changed so quickly.

So overall I had 12 bets over the weekend (that is matches I bet on, some had a combination such as dutching 1 and 2 goal margins) for a total stake of £400. This resulted in 3 wins and a loss of £73.75. This weekend feels like a microcosm of what Matt from Football Elite wrote in his email today. In my notebook I analysed most of the matches in the leagues I followed and came up with quite a lot of bets, including those mentioned in Saturday's post on the Arsenal match. As both myself and Rowan have mentioned I am an Arsenal fan, and somehow I talked myself out of backing a HT/Stoke bet at 4.2 and Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8. I justified this on the basis that they were not the type of bets I was having success with and this seems a sensible strategy, although I have had some wins with Win/Win HT/FT selections. What it has made me realise is that the writing up of selections can have an effect on what you do, be it in response to previous comments, or just wanting to limit yourself to save time and possible exposure to too many bets. I think this is also influenced by the relatively small bank size I mentioned in Saturday's post. Whereas £400 is a drop in the ocean compared to what I was betting on some Saturdays (Skeeve's selections would often be more by themselves), it is a large proportion of my betting bank and I don't want to blow it all at once. I really do admire the likes of Summer of Football and Football Elite with their small size banks and they get the ROC to go with it, but it must make it more nerve wracking for them on a poor run.

Maybe I should follow Matt's lead and have a shortlist selection. Needless to say if I had listed these bets there would have been wins galore including, QPR to draw and 0-0, Newcastle to win the second half, Derby -1 vs Huddersfield, Bayern to win to nil and a few others.

Hopefully this interlull will enable me to really get a grip on what I am doing and have a look at some other sports I used to follow. I would like to add top class horse racing and tennis to the mix, but feel this could take a bit of time. I suppose I have until Cheltenham in just over a month!

Thanks to all those that have popped over from TPI to have a peek and thanks for the comments. Back later in the week if I find any interesting angles!

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