Saturday, 2 February 2013

Tough work this tipping and selections for Saturday 2nd February

I must say this tipping malarkey is much tougher than I thought. Having posted 5 selections just before the kick-off of the first match it did not take long to realise the pressure on a provider of investment advice. Roma went down a goal quickly and after 20 minutes my goal fest had not started in Germany. Fortunately for me I was going out for dinner so didn't have the opportunity to follow the impending disaster. But in the car journey to the restaurant I was already questioning my reasoning and bank size recommendation.

In a way I was probably right to, regardless of results. Over the long run of following tipsters, I ended up following lower odds, higher ROC services rather than the higher odds, higher ROI ones. My choice of a £1000 bank hadn't involved that much consideration, beyond the fact that £50 was the value I had associated with stronger bets around the evens mark. This correlates with a 20 point bank similar to Summer of Football or ProBets from CDSystems. What it didn't take into account is my real time adjustments to a preference for bets above evens to a slightly higher figure. To be quite honest the £50 selection on Roma at 2.33 was too high, £40-45 was probably more appropriate for this bet. I do still bet at around the even mark, in fact Wednesday demonstrated one of my favourite type of bet at this level: Manchester United at home seem to have a strong preference for narrow wins, so dutching them to beat Southampton by 1 and 2 goals came out at just over evens and was never in much doubt.

I also mentioned that I was already questioning my reasoning within 20 minutes of kick-off. This may seem like hindsight talking, and probably is, but both of the European bets, while fitting relatively strong trends do not fit any of the 116 bets I have had in the last 2 months. The goals bet on Werder Bremen - Hannover match was a first, although I have done a couple of match result and over 2.5 goals combinations. The AS Roma handicap bet at 1.5 was also bigger than I had taken before. My analysis breakdown of Summer of Football also showed much stronger returns in the -0.75 to -1 bracket as opposed to higher.

With this in mind today's selections are hopefully playing to my strengths. As an Arsenal fan I was trying to find an angle to play the Stoke game. On Wednesday I had generally agreed with Football Elite's tip of Arsenal win (one of the few subscriptions left that will run out in February), but actually played it as a DNB variation - Arsenal to win and both teams to score with a score draw cover. I really could not see the Gunners stopping Suarez and co getting at least 1 goal and the calamity defending certainly backed that up. My analysis for today's game did produce a few angles, but again not my usual types so hopefully my experiences of yesterday will be a good lesson to walk before you run. For those interested I was between Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8, Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 3.4 (although not convinced that Stoke's away form, especially at the Emirates merits that) or a draw/Arsenal HT/FT at 4.6.

So on to today's actual selections!

English Premier League

Everton vs Aston Villa (15:00)
One ofmy favourite trend plays, Everton to win by one goal at home. 5 out of 6 of their home wins have all been by 1 goal, 4 of them by the score of 2-1 if you really want to increase the odds! Slightly worried by Aston Villa's level but their matches together have historically been close.

£30 Everton to win by one goal 3.9 Betfair, Ladbrokes, 3.75 188bet and others

West Ham vs Swansea (15:00)

Both of these teams like a draw, although I am not confident in differentiating between a score draw and 0-0 (have a penchant for the score draw option). West Ham have drawn three of the last 7 at home while Swansea have had three stalemates in the last 4 away, all goalless affairs. Another draw seems most likely option to me.

£30 West Ham to draw with Swansea 3.49 Pinnacle


Birmingham vs Forest (15:00)

Birmingham's home form is still poor with lots of draws. Forest are also registering their fair proportion of draws and the price is quite generous for this scenario. There has also been a large number of 2-2s in their recent history so a cheeky punt at a price is in order!

£25 Birmingham to draw with Forest 3.5 BV, 3.45 Pinnacle
£5 Correct score 2-2 16.5 Betfair, 15 188bet and others

Blackpool vs Barnsley (15:00)

Yet another draw trend. Lots of Blackpool home draws and Barnsley have drawn 2 of their last four away games, including at Leicester. A price of 4 with bet365 looks generous.

£30 Blackpool to draw with Barnsley 4.0 with bet365

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